Changelog
Every change, dated
How tips are picked, priced and settled, and every mistake we found and how we fixed it. Newest first.
Tip cards show the working
Each tip now shows the fair price, the best UK odds, the edge between them and a suggested stake (a quarter Kelly, max 2 units). Tips from model version 1 are labelled legacy and no longer show the flat edge figure.
24 boxing, MMA and cricket tips settled by hand
Tips from 27 September to 11 October with no automatic results source were settled from published results. Five were entered wrongly at first and corrected the same day after checking each result against two sources.
Closing-line value tracking added
The sharp price just before kick-off is now recorded for every tip, so we can show whether our prices beat the market’s final price.
Raise minimum edge to 4%
Tips win 4.7 points less often than predicted over 277 bets, so the edge is being overstated. A higher bar compensates. (Applied automatically by the weekly analyst.)
Football settlement fix
Results for several leagues were not settling because the two data sources spell team names differently. Fixed, with a safeguard so a match only counts if it was played within 36 hours of the tip’s kick-off.
Model version 2: Pinnacle pricing
Every tip is now priced against Pinnacle’s margin-free price, and the edge is calculated per tip. Version 1 had used one flat edge estimate (+8%) for every tip.
Boxing, MMA and cricket dropped; six football leagues added
There was no reliable source to settle fight and cricket results, so no new tips are published in those sports. Added League One, League Two, Belgian Pro League, Süper Lig, 2. Bundesliga and the Brasileirão.
Unverifiable tips moved to the legacy record
Tips more than 14 days past kick-off with no results source were marked unverified and excluded from the figures rather than guessed. They are all listed on the legacy record.
Acca record restarted
A settlement error was found in the old acca code. The acca record restarted on 9 October with every leg linked to a published tip; earlier accas are archived.
First tips published
Model version 1 goes live.