The method

How EdgeIQ picks its tips

A plain-English guide to where tips come from, the two filters every tip must pass, and how we keep score.

1. 1Scan pricesEach morning we collect odds from 10+ UK bookmakers and keep the best price for every outcome.
2. 2Find the fair pricePinnacle, one of the sharpest bookmakers, sets very accurate odds. We remove its margin to get a fair probability for every outcome.
3. 3Filter hardOnly selections with 55%+ fair probability where a UK bookmaker beats the fair price by 4%+ are published.
4. 4Settle publiclyAfter full time each tip is marked won, lost or void and added to the public record.

The two filters

Fair probability ≥ 55%. We take Pinnacle's odds — a bookmaker known for very accurate prices that welcomes winning customers — and strip out its margin. What is left is a fair probability for each outcome. Tips must be more likely than not, which keeps odds short and losing runs shorter.

Edge ≥ 4%. The edge measures how much the best UK price beats that fair probability:

A tip has to pass both filters, and only the single best edge per game is published. Most games pass neither, so some days have very few tips. That is the filter working.

Markets and sports

Football only: match result and total goals (over/under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5) across 17 leagues and competitions: Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Serie A, Champions League, Europa League, Championship, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Scottish Prem, League One, League Two, Belgian Pro League, Süper Lig, 2. Bundesliga, Brasileirão. Boxing, MMA and cricket were dropped in October 2026 because there was no reliable source to settle their results; their old tips are on the legacy record.

What's on a tip card

• Fair price: Pinnacle's margin-free price, and the chance it implies.
• Best UK odds: the best price we found at a UK bookmaker, and where.
• Edge: how much those odds beat the fair price, worked out for that tip.
• Stake: a suggested stake in units, a quarter of the Kelly stake, capped at 2 units. 1 unit = 1% of a betting bank you can afford to lose.
• Posted: when the tip went out, always before kick-off, and which model version produced it.
• Closing price and CLV: once a tip settles, the sharp price just before kick-off and whether our price beat it.

Beating the closing price

Just before kick-off we record Pinnacle's price again. If the odds we published were better than that closing price, the tip had closing-line value (CLV). Profit takes thousands of bets to prove anything; consistently beating the close shows a real edge within a couple of hundred. It is reported on the Performance page, good or bad.

Model versions

Version 1 (15 May – 11 Oct 2026) used one flat edge estimate for every tip (+8%) and worked the fair chance back from it. Those figures were not measured, so legacy tips show the odds and result but no fair price or edge. Version 2 (from 11 Oct 2026) calculates the fair price and edge for every tip from Pinnacle's margin-free price. Every change is listed in the changelog.

How results are recorded

• Every tip is recorded at the best odds available when it was published, with a 1-unit stake.
• A win returns odds − 1 units; a loss costs 1 unit; a void (e.g. draw no bet ending level) returns the stake and counts as 0.
• ROI = total profit ÷ units staked. Void bets are excluded from units staked.
• Football results come from official full-time scores (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
• Losing tips stay on the record. Nothing is deleted. See the full record.

Staking

Our record uses level 1-unit stakes so it is easy to compare. Each card also suggests a stake of a quarter Kelly, capped at 2 units, because full Kelly is aggressive and assumes the probabilities are exactly right. The Kelly calculator works it out for your own bank. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.

Limitations

No model is right every time. Probabilities are estimates, prices move after publication and you may not get the odds shown. Even a genuine edge produces losing weeks and months. Past results do not guarantee future returns.