The record, split up
Performance by league and market
Which leagues and markets are working, and which aren't. Losing segments stay on this page. All figures to 1-unit level stakes, all time, 373 settled tips.
Beating the closing price
Just before kick-off we record the sharpest market price for every tip. If our tips are consistently better than that closing price, the edge is real, and this shows it far sooner than profit can.
Tracking started in October 2026. Figures appear here after 20 tips.
Performance by risk profile
Steady (odds under 1.80)
369 tips · 243W–124L · 2 void · 66.2% win rate
+1.9%
ROI · +6.87u
Balanced (odds 1.80–3.00)
1 tip · 0W–0L · 1 void · — win rate · small sample
—
ROI · 0.00u
Big Price (odds 3.01–6.00)
3 tips · 1W–2L · 33.3% win rate · small sample
+44.3%
ROI · +1.33u
Performance by league
Cricket ODI
4 tips · 3W–0L · 1 void · 100.0% win rate · small sample
+46.3%
ROI · +1.39u
Europa League
10 tips · 9W–1L · 90.0% win rate
+34.9%
ROI · +3.49u
La Liga
45 tips · 31W–13L · 1 void · 70.5% win rate
+14.2%
ROI · +6.27u
Eredivisie
56 tips · 41W–15L · 73.2% win rate
+11.4%
ROI · +6.38u
Champions League
20 tips · 14W–6L · 70.0% win rate
+8.1%
ROI · +1.63u
Bundesliga
35 tips · 24W–11L · 68.6% win rate
+4.7%
ROI · +1.63u
Scottish Prem
3 tips · 2W–1L · 66.7% win rate · small sample
+3.3%
ROI · +0.10u
Premier League
48 tips · 32W–16L · 66.7% win rate
+2.9%
ROI · +1.41u
Championship
31 tips · 19W–12L · 61.3% win rate
−2.5%
ROI · −0.77u
Serie A
51 tips · 31W–20L · 60.8% win rate
−4.4%
ROI · −2.25u
Ligue 1
28 tips · 17W–11L · 60.7% win rate
−6.5%
ROI · −1.83u
Primeira Liga
24 tips · 13W–11L · 54.2% win rate
−16.1%
ROI · −3.87u
MMA
12 tips · 6W–5L · 1 void · 54.5% win rate
−21.7%
ROI · −2.39u
Boxing
4 tips · 2W–2L · 50.0% win rate · small sample
−24.8%
ROI · −0.99u
League One
1 tip · 0W–1L · 0.0% win rate · small sample
−100.0%
ROI · −1.00u
League Two
1 tip · 0W–1L · 0.0% win rate · small sample
−100.0%
ROI · −1.00u
Performance by market type
Over 3.5 Goals
9 tips · 7W–2L · 77.8% win rate · small sample
+23.1%
ROI · +2.08u
Match Winner
137 tips · 91W–44L · 2 void · 67.4% win rate
+4.4%
ROI · +6.00u
Over 2.5 Goals
158 tips · 107W–51L · 67.7% win rate
+4.1%
ROI · +6.47u
Under 3.5 Goals
13 tips · 8W–5L · 61.5% win rate
−2.8%
ROI · −0.37u
Under 2.5 Goals
43 tips · 26W–17L · 60.5% win rate
−3.7%
ROI · −1.59u
Draw No Bet
3 tips · 1W–1L · 1 void · 50.0% win rate · small sample
−19.0%
ROI · −0.38u
Over 1.5 Goals
8 tips · 4W–4L · 50.0% win rate · small sample
−25.1%
ROI · −2.01u
Draw
2 tips · 0W–2L · 0.0% win rate · small sample
−100.0%
ROI · −2.00u
Model update log
Raise minimum edge to 4% · 12 Oct 2026
Tips win 4.7 points less often than predicted over 277 bets, so the edge is being overstated. A higher bar compensates.
Reviewed every week
Every Monday an analyst agent tests each league and market for real (statistically significant) under-performance. Changes that only make the model stricter are applied automatically and can be undone; anything that loosens it needs a person to approve it. Every change is logged above and in the changelog.